What would happen if President Musharraf relinquishes power is a million dollar question. Let us try to find answer to this critical question. The newly established government will come under increasing pressure both from America and the people of Pakistan. United States would demand concrete results
in the tribal areas against Taliban and other militant forces now at loggerhead with Pakistan army. With Musharraf out of the power arena, people will shift their focus of admonishment to the incumbent government for their ongoing socio- economic and security problems. This public pressure would increase with the time passage. It is equally possible that diverse differences crop up between the principal coalition partners and they might ultimately part company which means leaving a fragile PPP in power.
The Muslim League (N) would prefer to adopt this strategy because they would benefit more by sitting outside than remaining in power with shared or divided decision making constraints. If PPP government fails to deliver on addressing people’s problem such as spiraling prices, lawlessness, unemployment and inadequate availability of utility services like water and electricity, they would come under public rebuke which would intensify as the time passes.
The Americans want their full return of the money they provide to Pakistan for busting Taliban and other extremist relgious elements. If the ruling coalition cannot deliver as per American expectations, the backlash would be in shape of further intimidation and pressure on the present government for clearing the tribal areas of the known enemies of America. Pakistan is primarily fighting a war to ensure iron-clad security to American people around the world. Otherwise Pakistan did not face any threat or attack from Taliban or AlQaida all these years.
The war on terror is fundamentally a war in which Pakistan has been dragged by overt and covert threats. The PPP led coalition is much weaker as compared to one man rule in combating the Islamic extremists. The Islamic radicals from this part of the world never posed any threat to American nation or the Western Europe. The 9/11 devastating attacks were carried out by the individuals originating from the Arab countries mainly Saudi Arabia. The war on terror, as a matter of retaliation, should have been focused on Arab lands. Ironically such people are being punished and exterminated who had nothing to do with events of September 2001 that triggered a global retaliation from American again the perpetrators.
Iraq was invaded for possessing or fabricating weapons of mass destruction and not for harboring or executing terror plans against America. It was much later that another charge of collaboration between Al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein was included into the litany of factors justifying invasion of Iraq. In Afghanistan, the presence of Al Qaeda outfit was minimal but it was excessively blown out of proportions by America and her western cohorts to create grounds for invading that poor country too.
Pakistan till then was generally immune from incursions or presence of the extremists. So with Pakistan’s involvement in the American coalition for fighting the Islamic extremism, the tribal areas too became hot beds of militancy from Al-Qaeda and Taliban. It is interesting that the tribal areas were seldom frequented by Taliban who were solely engaged in Afghanistan. Presently while Afghanistan stands exonerated from playing her part in fulfilling the targets set by America, the entire onus has fallen on Pakistan to accomplish what NATO forces have, so far, failed to achieve. Pakistan is, therefore, in a predicament that would cave into the whole fabric of national cohesion that thus far somehow remained intact.
It should be understood that Pervez Musharraf has a sizeable number of supporters and sympathizers in Pakistan. These well wishers of Musharraf genuinely believe that he is a good ruler who has served Pakistan well. They are of the unshakeable view that Musharraf’s succumbing to the American ‘head I win and tail you lose’ type of dictation was natural and in the interest of Pakistan. They think that under Musharraf Pakistan prospered and moved forward. In comparison they argue that the leadership that has re-entered the power corridors were more self serving, corrupt and incompetent as was demonstrated during their two times stint in power. Of all the Musharraf’s passionate supporters, MQM, a powerful cohesive entity mostly comprising the migrated Muslims from Indian ruled areas, is in the lead. Their support and alliance with him is understandable because Musharraf himself is an immigrant. Secondly he had routed Altaf Hussein’ rival group MQM (Haqiqi) led by Afaq Ahmad. Musharraf arrested him, put him behind the bar and broke Haqiqi’s power by using state force. MQM, therefore, finds in Musharraf a benefactor and a patron whose support was always readily available.
After Musharraf’s departure, there might be some respite in the escalating insurgency and intensifying turmoil in Pakistan’s Northern scenic valley of Swat and Tribal regions. But if the political government walks in the foot-steps of Musharraf and keeps the cauldron of strife boiling and army action in these troubled areas to continue then it might face the same public disapproval that Musharraf has of late been exposed to. The intriguing problem for the popularly elected government could be that even if it intends to shun use of force for subduing the shrew militants, the army may not buy or accept such a course or policy, nor would it be condoned by USA. Thus there is going to be a discord between the armed forces of Pakistan and the nascent democratic dispensation, be it one party or a coalition. Pakistan army is receiving all kinds of military hardware and funds from America to carry on the war on terror. It would be utterly illogical to believe that the army act upon the directives of Pakistan’s civilian government and withdraw from the combat areas so soon.
Besides, the economic woes, a spillover from the ill-conceived policy of the former government headed by Shaukat Aziz are going to exacerbate. There is no magic wand that can cut down the escalating prices so soon and usher Pakistan into an era of economic stability. But by the time the government can claim of providing relief to the hard pressed Pakistanis and recovery of the economic down-slide, much water would have flown over heads. There is going to be a public clamour in Pakistan and it would not be possible for the government to assuage the furious and charged people.
The PPP government, as can be seen, is composed of the ordinary individuals who had no distinctive record of public service nor can they can be rated as revolutionaries and wizards who would break the status quo and take epoch making measures to enact far reaching changes in all domains of national life. The majority of the ministers don’t have a vision or experience or a passion for radical changes and transformation in the socio-political and economic landscape of Pakistan. It is the old elixir in the newly labeled bottles. Democracy alone is a welcome development but its worth can be appreciated in economically contented and socially stable societies and not in impoverished and backward societies that remain hostage to the pressure groups, petty and parochial vested interests.
So the disgruntled masses will start entertaining nostalgic feelings about the preceding times when things were not as bad as these were now. There will be demand by the opposition parties for fresh elections. That would trigger brinkmanship and reactivated political belligerency between the people in power and the clique out of it. If the country once again moves to a civil war situation or anarchy, the army’s intervention, once again, cannot be ruled out. If elections are held, there is a possibility that the political parties minus PPP might goes along with each other under the umbrella of PML (N) to form the next government.
It should also be understood that a coalition with sole aim of ousting Pervez Musharraf would not last long. The differences are bound to spring on policy issues or decision making in due course of time. Mian Nawaz Sharif does not have the genes to serve in a subservient role in a political set up of governance. The time would prove that he would like to part way sooner than later. The trends show that his party has a better standing barely after 6 months of the formation of PPP government. As mentioned earlier,the first question, on which they are likely to differ, would be about the continuation of the military operations in the tribal belt and Swat and Malakand areas. Nawaz Sharif may take up a stand against the use of force against its own people. At the same time he might prevail upon the militants to desist from their activities in Swat and tribal areas. This is one way of clearing the tribal border areas from the anti American militants by moving them to Afghanistan’s territory. Thus NATO may not have an excuse that tribal areas were being used for across border attacks on foreign forces.